Saturday, March 5, 2016

The major challenge for the world economy in 2016

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the world economy is simultaneously facing three major adjustments, including emerging markets slowdown, China shifted growth model less dependent on exports and production, and the US Federal reserve System (FED) phasing out super-low interest rate policy.

The growth recovery lasted 6 years of the global economy is under stress, and the IMF dated 19/1 cut growth forecasts for the world economy this year - Bloomberg said.

IMF gloomy outlook for the world economic outlook given in the context of basic commodity prices plunged and political turmoil engulfed push Brazil into recession, oil prices plummeted as the manufacturer " black gold "afflicted, and the dollar rose," made difficult "for the US economy.

In the quarterly report World Economic Outlook (World Economic Outlook) latest IMF forecasts the world economy will grow 3.4% this year, from 3.6% forecast made in May 10/2015.

Verdict that the IMF can make global investors more pessimistic.

International financial markets have had a bad opening for 2016, with the continuous stock index dropped sharply, oil prices continued to set the bottom, and gradual monetary policy tightening that US capital inflows massively flee from risky assets higher across the world.

"This year will be a year of great challenges. Policy makers should think in the short-term stability and the way they can be used to reinforce that, in addition to looking for long-term growth prospects, "chief economist Maurice Obstfeld of IMF said.

The IMF estimated the world economy grew by 3.1% last year, the weakest growth since the recession in 2015 was also the year 2009. Growth of emerging economies and developing countries deceleration Year 5 in a row.

According to the IMF, the world economy is simultaneously facing three major adjustments, including the slowdown in emerging markets, China shifted growth model less dependent on exports and production, and US Federal reserve System (FED) phasing out of super-low interest rate policy.

The IMF warned that global growth may be derailed if the challenges are not well managed.

According to the analysts, the theme of global growth prospects deteriorate opened in Davos, Switzerland on June 20/1. It is expected that more than 2,500 policy-makers, business leaders, investors and scholars attended the event.

The IMF said emerging economies and developing countries will grow 4.3% this year, down from 4.5% forecast made in October, and compared with an increase of 4%, but this group achieved in 2015.

"The journey of this year we can be bumpy, especially with emerging economies and developing countries," Mr. Obstfeld said.

IMF forecasts China's economy to grow 6.3% this year, down 3.5% Brazilian economy, and the Russian economy fell by 1%.

For developed economies, the IMF predicts a recovery "modest and uneven" will continue. This institution lowered its growth forecast for the US economy in 2016 to 2.6%, from 2.8% in October launched.

According to the IMF, the eurozone economy will grow 1.7% in 2016, 0.1 percentage points higher than forecast in May 10. Japan's economy is the IMF forecast a 1% increase, while the UK economy is the forecast increase of 2.2%.

Before the IMF, World Bank (WB) has lowered the economic growth prospects for the global 2016.

In its report Global Economic Prospects (Global Economic Prospects) announced on 6/1, the World Bank cut its forecast for growth of the world economy in 2016 to 2.9%, from the forecast increase of 3 , 3% given in the report released in June.

World Bank says global economy to grow 2.4% in 2015, lower than the forecast of 2.8% made in the report in June, and down from the 2.6% achieved in year 2014.